Annual Gasoline Price Post

It was difficult, this year,  to put together my annual blog post on the price of gasoline.  I had the pictures of prices at the pump taken in early January showing the government mandated price of 11.5 Egyptian Pounds per liter.

 

But what should I use for the conversion of Egyptian Pounds to U.S. Dollars?  The official rate had remained at 30.85 EGP per USD since the previous year.  This was a valid number - it is what I would see if I used a credit card or withdrew money from an ATM.  But the "parallel market," as it was referred to in the local media (black market in U.S. media) was reportedly running at 40 to 1 - some reports said 50 to 1 - there was even a report in Barrons of 70 to 1, although I couldn't find anyone that had evidence of it happening.  

Rumors about imminent devaluation of the pound were flying - even that the pound would be allowed to float.

Finally, the devaluation came to pass on March 7.  The pound was free to float!  And it surfaced at about 48 EGP to the dollar before settling around 47.

 

So I planned for two entries on the annual chart.  Of course, in Egypt, plans change.  Just a few days after the pound was devalued, the government regulated price of gasoline changed.  Everyone's favorite 92 octane jumped from 11.5 EGP per liter to 12.5   Reports of the change quickly circulated on the media and Internet.

 

With all the calculations done, here is the bottom line:  The Egyptian motorist has seen the price of gasoline rise from 9.25 to 12.5 EGP  per liter - a whopping 35% over the past year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. observer of the scene has noticed that the price has fallen from $1.19 per gallon to $1.00 per gallon - almost a 16% decrease.

Yes.  Dollar a gallon gas has returned!

Here are some historic gas prices for as long as I have been keeping track - with three lines for the current year, 2024. (Prices shown in Egyptian Pound and U.S. Dollar equivalency)  Note that over the seventeen year period, the Egyptian prices has increased by a factor of 8 while the price in dollars has remained fairly constant.

	EGP	US $
Year	per liter	per gallon
2007	1.50	1.04
2011	1.42	0.93
2013	1.85	1.04
2014	1.85	1.01
2016	2.60	1.26
2017	3.50	0.74
2018	5.00	1.11
2019	6.75	1.46
2020	7.75	1.83
2021	COVID	COVID
2022	8.50	2.05
2023	9.25	1.19
2024 Jan	11.50	1.41 *1
2024 Jan	11.50	1.09
2024 Mar	12.50	1.00

*1 Price in U.S. Dollars at official rate vs. "parallel market" rate

When  we traveled to Minya by van, I noted the price of Solar (Diesel fuel.)  Selling for only 8.25 EGP per liter in January, it jumped 21% to 10 EGP per liter.  While only costing 80 cents a gallon on our scale, the 21% increase will ripple through the entire Egyptian economy.